Description
The detailed and quantitative information about climate change is crucial in order to have targeted and sustainable adaptation strategies. The NAGIS system and this project serve a proper scientific basis of these strategies. The project aims to contribute to the NAGIS system by providing detailed estimations for future climate change and their potential ranges over Hungary using regional climate models. The output will be used as basic information source for impact assessments caused by climate change. The project will provide a summary of the validation of the simulation results compared to observations for a reference period; sensitivity experiments to specify the optimal settings of the climate change experiments; simulations with state-of-the art model versions, emission scenarios etc.; input parameters for the impact assessments; the geographical distribution of present and future climate and hydrological parameters, to be used for assessing quantified climate change impacts, and vulnerability indicators for a grid resolution of 10km x 10km;complete information about the uncertainties of climate model simulation, and a strategy for using quantified uncertainty information in the vulnerability studies; and overview of the development of the simulation data fed into the NAGiS and the recent data. The partnership will perform climate simulations with a resolution of 10 km through the latest versions of two regional climate models: ALADIN-Climate adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service and RegCM used at Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology based in the global climate scenarios identified by 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC. Workshops, meetings and trainings will be held to help potential users to properly utilize and interpret climate projections.
Summary of project results
The C13-10 project has been completed in time by February 29, 2106. All the deliverables and all the indicators contracted have been achieved. The project final report for the period December 15, 2014 – February 29, 2016 has been approved with a total EEA grant contribution of EUR 297,823.17. Using the ALADIN-Climate and RegCM models, the project performed 5-10 years sensitivity analyses, 20 years validity simulations for the period of 1981-2000, and new experiments were carried out covering Central and Eastern Europe with a resolution of 10 km. Based on the results of the experiments, the annual, seasonal, monthly and daily minimum, maximum and average values and sums of temperature and precipitation were examined for 2021-2050 and 2069-2098 periods, referring to the period of 1971-2000. Based on the results of the new model simulations, the project provided the NAGIS with the lower and upper limits of the annual and seasonal average temperature and precipitation changes for Hungary for the 2021-2050 and 2069-2098 periods, reference period 1971-2000. All the relevant outputs listed in the Programme proposal have been achieved. The most important project outputs are listed below: • Four sets of 5-10 years simulation for sensitivity and presentation of results, and four sets of validation for a period of 20-30 years; • 20 scenarios modelling; • One set of validation; • Two sets of scenarios; • One set of projection, characterization of the changes expected in future; • 40 sets of climate data, characteristics of the future climate; • Under Communication activities the project promoter has developed the project website, organized events and workshops, prepared publications; • The project promoter was active in bilateral activities during the project implementation and after; Project website:
http://www.met.hu/RCMTeR/en/kezdo/
Summary of bilateral results