Description
The project addresses the need to adapt the forests to the existing and forthcoming climate change. The project aims at planning the adaptation of the forests in Kresna area to the climate change by means of climate change maps. First, a digital forest climate change map will be prepared and correlated with the existing plant species. Second, all trees and plant species will be identified and presented in 2 reports. Third, a draft methodology for the adaptation of forests to climate change will be prepared. Finally, the results will be presented to the stakeholders during 2 meetings. The project will benefit the competent institutions, education establishments, experts, NGOs and the public at large. The partners will provide technical support, contacts with the institutions, coordination of experts and expertise.
Summary of project results
The project met 2 needs. The first one is related to the risks from fast-developing climate change exceeding the capacity of plant species and ecosystems to adapt and their opportunities to migrate (particularly if the future habitat does not concur with the current one due to global warming or concurs less). This risk has not been considered in detail or at all in the programme of measures for adaptation of forests in Bulgaria since 2011. The project managed to make such assessment in the first place. Second, the project applied innovative for Bulgaria bioclimatic methodologies in order to forecast future habitats of species and plant communities. This is the comprehensive bioclimatic classification of Rivas –Martinez (
www.globalbioclimatics.org) which has been widely used across the globe in botanical and phytosociological surveys and the plant hardiness zone map of the US Department of Agriculture. The project results were highly innovative and include the prepared GIS models and maps with the forecasted bioclimatic and plant changes based on innovative for Bulgaria methodologies which allow for detailed mapping. The project products include Digital model of the current and future bio climate at Kresna State Forestry Enterprise based on the Rivas-Martinez methodology, Report with prepared analyses of the native and suitable for import tree and shrub species – a bioclimatic niche, Report with prepared model methodological plan for adaptation of forests to climate change based on bioclimatic niches of plant communities and the species they include. All these elements were part of a plan to adapt the forests in Kresna State Forestry Enterprise. The product shows well what needs to be done and what investments should be made to take adequate measures to adapt the forests including in Natura 2000 protected areas. 2 public discussions were held with 40 participants from decision-making institutions, higher education establishments, research institutes and others who were presented the model plan. The data about the climate models was provided by National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, the Bulgarian Academy of Science, and the experts under the project included people from the Forestry University. The developed methodology was presented to the relevant specialists from the Ministry of Environment and Water and disseminated among the institutions and specialists in climate change.
Summary of bilateral results