Description
The aim of the proposed study is to develop a scientifically-based tool for the modelling, medium / long term (2030 / 2050) simulation, and policy assessment of Latvian bioeconomy and climate. The outcome will allow for detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-specific forecasting in accordance with the international emissions inventory, and will facilitate a socio-economic assessment of the Latvian bio-economy. The project will focus on a sustainable utilization of renewable natural resources, specifically the biological ones, aiming at the greatest added value and the least impact on the environment, including climate change. Biological resources are of special importance to Latvia. It is essential to find a way to provide added value for biological resources - they should not merely be burned as fuel or exported as raw materials for others to exploit. The project goal is to manage biological resources in a way that ensures a sustainable, gradual improvement of the Latvian economy while, at the same time, creating and maintain an environment where Latvians and others would want to live. The project partners' experts has already developed a scientifically-based tool for the modelling, simulation, and policy assessment of Norway. The partner will provide knowledge and experience exchange during the project implementation and tool development assistance.
Summary of project results
The aim of the study was to develop a scientifically-based tool for the modelling, medium/long term (2030/2050) simulation, and policy assessment of the Latvian bioeconomy and climate. The central axis of project was the development of a dynamic hypothesis; system dynamics model building, testing and simulation. The model was used to simulate Latvia’s existing socio-economic structure as well as its transfer to bio-economy by implementing different policy tools. There were also supporting activities to gather scientifically proved information and data for the system dynamics model. Bioeconomy covers development of new innovative technologies, economic factors and the private sector in policy customization. One of the key issues is a long-term development: how to optimize benefits using biological resources, based on existing and projected technology availability levels, the current economic situation (investment opportunities, market conditions, etc.) and the most relevant environmental regulations (pollution, legislative regulations, taxes, etc.). The model has been created for two sectors, agriculture and forestry, and 33 products that can be obtained from forestry resources and 66 products from agricultural resources have been modeled. Moreover, each national economy sector has been taken into consideration. The draft of the proposed scientific approach explored a variety of bioeconomical scenarios and identified policy tools to address the medium and long term adaptable, sustainable and robust economic development and is economically, socially and environmentally sound. The project focused on a sustainable utilization of renewable natural resources, specifically the biological ones, aiming at the greatest added value and the least impact on the environment, including climate change. Our main goal is to manage our biological resources in a way that ensures a sustainable, gradual improvement of the Latvian economy while, at the same time, creating and maintain an environment where Latvians and others would want to live. Public access to the results of the project provides a project issued scientific monograph and booklet. These materials are delivered to the largest Latvian libraries, including educational institutions libraries, and the largest bio-economy organizations.
Summary of bilateral results
The project partner – University of Bergen - helped with the creation of a system dynamic model and result analysis. Given that the Norwegian partner had already developed a similar scientific tool for the modeling, simulation, and policy assessment of the Norwegian bioeconomy and climate, their experience and knowledge was very valuable to the project. Riga Technical University Institute of energy systems and environment, in close collaboration with the System dynamic group of University of Bergen, developed the system dynamic model. Representatives of the Riga institute went on a project visit to the University of Bergen to discuss the main project guidelines and operational principles. The partner also took part in a project conference in Riga with two presentations.