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Description
The proposed project concerns the use of computer modelling methodologies to simulate aspects of secularising societies. The methodology used is to model the system dynamics of individuals and to then use these in agent-based models of whole societies. This allows the researchers to examine how individual level and society level phenomena are connected. The project will draw upon a range of results from the cognitive and social sciences - including research on existential security, fuzzy fidelity, the prosocial role of religion, the cognitive basis of supernatural beliefs, error management theory, credibility enhancing displays, Big God religions, and epistemic vigilance.
Summary of project results
In recent years both religious movements and secular ideologies have been at the forefront of social and political changes. Despite this, ever greater numbers of people living in developed countries such as Poland and Norway, do not identify with any religion and few would claim to identify with nationalist, communist or indeed fascist ideologies. At the same time, numbers of people who see democratic ideals as vital to a good society also appear to be on the wane.
Understanding these changes required a multidisciplinary approach that combines sociological theories with those from the cognitive sciences. Being able to predict their effects calls for an analytical methodology that is capable of combining those theories, such as is provided by computer modelling methods. The project used existing theories such as the magical ideology theory developed by the Principal Investigator as the basis for agent-based computer models of social phenomena such as religions and ideologies in order to test those theories against the available sociological data and, ultimately, arrive at an improved understanding of secularising societies and the cognitive and cultural mechanisms that underpin them.
The objective of the project, as stated in the proposal, was “to provide computer-based models of aspects of secularising societies that will allow researchers to understand the connections between cognitive processes and behaviour at the individual level with
society-level phenomena.” This, the project has amply achieved, as can be spelled out by considering each of the project topic areas in turn. The work on fuzzy fidelity theory focussed mostly at the social level, helping to clarify the way that the process of secularisation
proceeds. It has, however, also provided new evidence that secularisation is primarily caused by existential security. It has done so by examining how individual levels of existential security feed through to changed in the social level of religiosity, without examining the
concrete psychological/cognitive mechanisms involved. The prosocial equilibrium model helped to flesh out this relationship by both showing how individual levels of anxiety could factor into a feed-back mechanism which maintained an equilibrium state in traditional
society but which broke down in modern societies that ensure relatively low levels of anxiety thanks to secular institutions such as social welfare. The epistemic vigilance and error management models focussed much more on the cognitive level by examining in detail two
potential mechanisms that could play a role in maintaining the equilibrium state mentioned above. All of this work was backed up with empirical research, such as large scale international surveys and psychological experiments designed to test crucial elements of the
theories, which provided independent evidence for some of the assumptions made in the models and allowed us to calibrate the models to real values.
Throughout the project, team members have been very active in presenting the outcomes of our research at numerous conferences, including by regularly attending the Social Simulation Conferences, as well as meetings of the International Association for the Cognitive and Evolutionary Sciences of Religion and the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion. The variety of scientific communities we have presented our work to is indicative of the fact that the project has included a number of different but closely connected lines of research that employ the methods and theories from a range of disciplines. As such, the project has the scope to impact scientific research in a number of different ways. Most fundamentally, by making use of agent-based models of aspects of secularisation, the project has been at the foreground of the use of computer modelling techniques in social sciences. This methodology, to be used both in pure and applied social research, makes it possible to make substantive predictions about the behaviour of social systems that take into account the
variability of individuals and the nonlinearity of the behaviour of such systems. As such, it is likely to form the basis of public policy in the near future.
The project offers to have significant socio-economic impact in two distinct ways. The first concerns the primary findings of the project. In particular, the finding that the dynamics of the process of secularisation are largely unaffected by policies aimed at affecting its progress,
due to them being mainly the result of the level of existential security in a society. This finding, which has been widely publicised by the PI in a variety of media, entails that policies aimed at either speeding up or slowing down the progress of secularisation are highly
unlikely to be successful and therefore can not be justified on a purely pragmatic basis given their economic and social costs. The second way in which the project should lead to significant long-term socio-economic effects is by serving as an early example of the power
of using agent-based models to understand and predict social processes. Just as this is sure to have a transformative effect on the social sciences, it will provide the basis for evidence-based social policy in the future. Members of the team are currently involved in
efforts to communicate the significance of this methodology to policymakers and have sought funds to pursue this aim.
Summary of bilateral results
The project merits a positive evaluation for its internationalization efforts. Throughout its implementation, the project actively engaged with international collaborators, notably through joint publications and presentations at numerous global conferences, which enhanced its visibility and scholarly impact. The involvement of researchers from various countries fostered cross-cultural exchanges of ideas and methodologies, contributing to a richer understanding of the topics explored.