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Description
This project breaks new interdisciplinary ground in the socio-economic history of the Baltic countries, providing for the first time cross-time and cross-country comparable gross domestic product (GDP) data series for all three countries, covering the complete 100 years period since the end of independence wars. Applying a methodology tested in recent research on the economic development of Europe‘s regions since 1900, it will decompose these series down to a regional level to explore trends in the economic and social disparities between regions inside of each Baltic State. It is promoted by the Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, Latvia, and led by its Rector Gatis Krūmiņš. It involves experienced researchers from Estonia (Olaf Mertelsmann and Martin Klesment, University of Tartu), Lithuania (Zenonas Norkus, Vilnius University) and Norway (Ola Honingdal Grytten, Norwegian School of Economics), who will provide methodological knowledge transfer from advanced Norwegian to catching-up Baltic research in the national and regional quantitative socio-economic history. Besides economic disparities between regions, measured by levels of the GDP per capita, changing cross-regional differences in demographic structures and inequalities in human development (education, life expectancy, availability of social services) will be comparatively investigated. For these research aims a depository of statistical data will be created, containing data series on demographic and socioeconomic indicators. This data depositary will serve as open source of reliable information for scenario planning and forecasting in regional policy making, media literacy and strategic communications needs. As a result of the project, a collective monograph will be prepared for publication in an international publishing house and 8 internationally refereed publications.
Summary of project results
Thanks to the project jointly implemented by the Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, the Vilnius University, the University of Tartu and the Norwegian School of Economics, the knowledge base on the socio-economic development of the Baltic States from 1920 to 2020 has been significantly increased. As a result of the project, the GDP of the Baltic States has been calculated for this time period, which has happened for the first time in history. Until now, the Baltic States were the only EU region where such a calculation was not carried out. It allows tracking the long-term development trends of the Baltic States, based on one of the most widely used macroeconomic development indicators globally. A calculation of the regional GDP of individual years has been made for the periods of the independence of the Baltic States, which allows to trace the long-term trends of regional inequality. Another novelty of the project is the collection of regional historical data within modern administrative boundaries . Thanks to the results of the project, it is now possible to ground regional planning and policy on data-based long-term development trends.
As a result of this project, the GDP of the Baltic States has been calculated for the time period from 1920 to 2020. The newly acquired data allows tracking the long-term development trends of the Baltic States, based on one of the most widely used macroeconomic development indicators globally. The former lack of such a calculation can be explained by the long-term occupation of the Baltic States by the USSR (the analysis of this period is a specific and complex research topic) and lack of research capacity in individual Baltic States (also in terms of funding). GDP calculation is not possible without the use of a large amount of quantitative data, which characterizes production volumes, services and population employment. In the implementation of the project, researchers have devoted a lot of time to collecting quantitative data in the archives.
The results of the GDP calculation make it possible to draw important new conclusions about the development of the Baltic States – analyzing these countries as a unique European region, as well as separately. It is an important, data-based conclusion that the economic decline of the Baltic States began even before the restoration of independence (1990 – 1991), which destroys the myth maintained in the information space of the modern Russian Federation about the negative impact of the independence of the Baltic States on the economic development of the countries. The data show that economic growth since independence has been the fastest in 100 years of history. This made it possible to obtain the information necessary for the calculation of GDP.
The data also confirm that around 1975, a rapid slowdown in macroeconomic growth began. Another important conclusion arising from the results of the project is that research should be continued in order to identify changes in the real quality of life of the inhabitants of the Baltic States over 100 years. In particular, this conclusion is applicable to the period of occupation of the USSR, when a significant part of the added value (national income) created in the Baltic States in various ways (budget transactions, export of goods) was used outside the borders of the Baltic States – it was directed to other territories of the USSR and for the achievement of goals unrelated to national interests of Baltic States. The analysis of 100-year development trends leads to the conclusion that the Baltic region cannot be perceived as a part of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe or Central Europe. The development trends have been too different. Geopolitical upheavals, economic transformation and financial crises have affected the Baltic States more than other regions, and the Baltic States have demonstrated better resilience after crises. Further research of the Baltic region is of high international relevance.
A calculation of the regional GDP of individual years has been made for the periods of independence of the Baltic States, which allows to trace the long-term trends of regional inequality. These ambitious goals were achieved thanks to the collection and systematization of a large amount of quantitative data on the Baltic States and their regions. A significant part of this data has been collected in a specially created database and the data is publicly available in the data catalog baltic100.va.lv, which contains 102 data sets on the demographics of the Baltic States, the economic activity of the population and the historically important agricultural sector. Another novelty of the project is the collection of regional historical data within modern administrative boundaries. Agricultural data were obtained in some cases based on agricultural production activity per square kilometre. Important conclusions have been drawn about development trends in the agricultural sector and demography. The conclusion is that the policies implemented by the occupation regime of the USSR (Sovietization, collectivization, repressions) has negatively affected the recovery of the agriculture. The recovery of agriculture after World War II was considerably slower than after World War I. Thanks to the implementation of the Baltic100 project, the demographic contrasts of the Baltic countries in the last 100 years can be better explained. The collected quantitative data also make it possible to analyze individual regions of the Baltic States and identify objects of further research, for example, the significant differences in infant mortality in families of representatives of different nationalities and religious denominations before the Second World War.
Historians, economists, mathematicians and IT specialists worked side by side in the project. Each area has its own specifics, habits, work traditions. Implementation of this project undeniably broadened horizons of the participants. Representatives of the humanities and social sciences now have a better understanding of the basic principles of database construction, specific nuances of how data should be collected and stored for further use for other programming purposes. On the other hand, IT experts have gained experience working with scientists from other fields with a different perspective.
The results of the project are important for the wider society. The knowledge based on demography, employment and bio-economy was significantly expanded. Thanks to the BALTC100 project, data on average life expectancy, infant mortality, rural and urban population, and different age categories are currently available both at the national and regional level (NUTS3 statistical regions). The Latvian Statistics Office has also included the demographic data collected by the project team member Ilmārs Mežs in its database.
The data obtained about the bioeconomy sector - the number of farm animals, yields and productivity of the main agricultural crops, forest areas, etc. are widely used in various industry conferences, formulating a position in future policy planning. It is important that a database was created as part of the project, where several dozen data series are available for each Baltic country and their regions. All these data are freely available to the public and currently various international databases show great interest in them.
The results of the project in 2024 gained wide resonance in Latvia. The scientific leader Gatis Krūmiņš made several appearances in various media, the intermediate results of the project were presented to the Presidents of Latvia and Estonia.
In the project, 10 scientific articles have been prepared and published, project participants have presented 36 times at international scientific conferences. The team has prepared a joint proposal for a collective monograph for publication in an international publishing house as well as submitted a joint research project application to the Horizon Europe program as well as a project application to the Latvian Council of Science.
Summary of bilateral results
The BALTIC100 project has perfectly demonstrated the benefits of cooperation. Using the expertise of scientific institutions representing Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Norway, we combined it and achieved the result in a relatively short time. Not only the collection of data and the calculation of GDP, but also the fact that all this work was done according to a unified methodology, must be highlighted as a success. The University of Vilnius undertook the calculation of GDP, the University of Tartu carried out source analysis and criticism, while Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences coordinated the work and created the database. The involvement of the Norwegian School of Economics was significant – in Norway, the GDP has already been calculated for the last 200 years and they are currently working on the 18th century. The involvement and advice of Norwegian scientists in difficult moments was irreplaceable. The collection of historical data in small countries is specific. Much of the data is unpublished, found in archival collections and only in the national language. Working in Estonia without mastering the Estonian language would be very difficult, the same can be applied to Latvia and Lithuania. Much of the data available on the period of occupation of the USSR was in Russian and was not published. During the first year of the project, the COVID-19 pandemic came as an unpleasant surprise. This made the archives of the Baltic States inaccessible and some of the planned works were delayed. Part of the data collection was postponed to a later time, and at this moment of congestion, the opportunity to attract a researcher from Ukraine – Yuliia Kovalenko – came as an important solution. She was actively involved in the work of the project, helping collect and systematize data on the period of occupation of the USSR in Latvia and Lithuania. This made it possible to expand the number of working fields and data series in the database.