Long-term socio-economic forecasting for Hungary

Project facts

Project promoter
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies
Project Number:
HU04-0006
Target groups
Researchers or scientists,
Bodies responsible for systems and policies in education and local, regional and/or national level.
Status:
Completed
Initial project cost:
€174,605
Final project cost:
€173,630
From EEA Grants:
€ 173,630
The project is carried out in:
Hungary

More information

Description

The project aims to support the adaptation process by providing a scientific ground for territorially specific actions, and enhancing the climate-related knowledge base and awareness of decision makers, professionals and the general public in the fields of socio-economy. The project focuses on forecasting the long-term social and economic development patterns in Hungary and so providing further sector specific information to the National Adaptation Geo- Information System (NAGiS). Min 2 Sector specific indicator for exposure, Min 2 Sector specific indicator for sensitivity, Min 2 Sector specific indicator for adaptive capacity, 1 Data layers description, Geographical distribution of identified parameters relevant for the sector in question: min 6 maps/files. The primary target group of the project are the users of Nagis. Also the scientific and professional circles are addresses.The project analyses the inclusion of social and economic indicators in the climate models. This activity deals with the post-1945 history of socio-economic modelling in Hungary and the parallel international experience as well. The second part of the project models the socio-economic processes in Hungary through 2050, on the scale of districts and regions as well as on a 10x10 km grid. This modelling will forecast three distinguished dimensions, demographic and economic processes. An important aspect of the project is to provide NAGIS-compatible data and model results on the lowest possible territorial level to assist local decision-makers in developing foresightful actions.

Summary of project results

The aim of the project was to forecast the long-term socio-economic development path of Hungary until 2050, and to foster the adaptation to climate change. The results, the socio-economic characteristics of Hungary in the future, have been integrated into the National Adaptation Geo-Information System (NAGIS). The project investigated and quantified demographical, economic and land-use change on various geographical and temporal scales, taking into account the interdependence of socio-economic spatial processes and climate change. In addition to the quantifiable results, recommendation have been phrased about the usability of these data in NAGIS, thereby supporting the further development of climate change related public policies. In the course of the project 11 models with 238 datasets were produced, altogether more than 100,000 records in the NAGIS database on different geographical scales. Apart from the project reports about the literature review, demographic, land use and economic models were built, and a survey was undertaken on the population’s attitudes towards climate change. Furthermore, the project consisted of important methodological developments about how climate change might be integrated into socio-economic projections. Dissemination activities reached a broad range of people in academia and public-policy making: two events were organised, produced 6 newsletters in Hungarian, held 27 conference presentations at Hungarian and international scientific meetings, and summarised the main results in a separate book in Hungarian.

Summary of bilateral results