Description
The increase in temperature and changes in the Baltic Sea's salinity and ice regime observed during the last 100 years have led to a significant alteration of near-coast currents and waves, and the suspended material transport regime. This in turn, has a negative impact on biodiversity of coastal underwater habitat biodiversity. Therefore, the aim of this study is to link and as far as possible quantify pressures caused by climate change with biodiversity of coastal habitats. The study will include spatial modelling of waves and temporal characteristics. This will serve as a basis to characterize alongshore currents and transport of suspended particles. The above-mentioned information will be used to elaborate spatial pressure gradient and to construct pressure/state diagrams for pressures generated by climatic factors and factors characterizing biodiversity of benthic (seabed) habitats. Thereafter, indicator fact sheets will be elaborated. The primary target groups for project results are governmental structures. The secondary target group consists of local municipalities, fishermen and people living close to shoreline.
Summary of project results
The increase of temperature and the changes in the Baltic Sea's salinity and ice regime observed during the last 100 years cause significant alteration of near-cost currents and wave behavior, and suspended material transport regime. This in turn, has a negative impact on biodiversity of coastal underwater habitat biodiversity. The aim of study "Climate change impact on biodiversity of Baltic Sea coastal reefs" is to link and as far as possible quantify pressures caused by climate change with biodiversity of coastal habitats. The study included modelling of wave spatial and temporal characteristics. The model was used to reconstruct the wave regime of the past 38 years (from 1970 to 2007). This served as a basis to characterize alongshore currents and transport of suspended particles. The above-mentioned information was used to elaborate spatial pressure gradient and to construct pressure/state diagrams for pressures generated by climatic factors and factors characterizing biodiversity of benthic habitats. The application of satellite information leads to the conclusion that average significant wave height has been increasing by 0.005m per year. Thereafter, the model was used to calculate future wave parameters for next 45 years. According to results, the significant wave height, wave direction and period will not change significantly during the modeled period. However, detailed analysis of acquired data indicate that with 95% probability wave height will increase by 0.008m per year during this period. Since several factors cumulatively impact benthic habitats they were combined into an index of physical impact. At present this index can be characterized as more qualitative than quantitative. The physical and biological data were also used to test several existing indexes in search for an index that could be used to characterize impact of naturally occurring physical factors. However, the achieved progress is still limited and further studies are needed to refine the achieved results.
Summary of bilateral results